Well it had to happen eventually during this campaign. To call it a “Joe the plumber” moment is understating the gravity of this great piece of predictable British political drama which happens to a similar extent in other Commonwealth nations: when the walkabout goes wrong.
When out and about in Rochdale in the North of England, British PM Gordon Brown was heckled by an elderly lady Gillian Duffy and usually that would be that. But in this case an aide of Gordon Brown’s came up to Mrs Duffy and asked her if she’d like to speak to the Prime Minister.
And so began probably one of the most uncomfortable exchanges between a member of the ivory tower collective and the electorate I have ever seen. Most of the talk seemed to be about various issues such as taxation and so forth finishing on immigration from Eastern Europe which Mr Brown reacted too rather brusquely but not rudely. After that hands were shook and there were smiles all round with Mr Brown heading into his Ministerial Jaguar to drive away. That it seemed was that.
Except that wasn’t that. All three party leaders during this election have been miked up by the various news networks more or less all the time and sometimes the mikes are left on for a few seconds while the leaders leave the scene. In this case, the mic was still on and Gordon Brown was recorded saying:
Mr. Brown can be heard saying to an unseen aide, after having stepped into his car: “That was a disaster. You should never have put me with that woman. Whose idea was that?” He added, “It was just ridiculous.” The aide suggested that British television “might not go with that one.” Mr. Brown responded, “They will go with it.”
In response to the aide’s question, “What did she say?” Mr. Brown replied, “Oh — everything — she just was a bigoted woman.”
And with that, Gordon Brown basically killed off his entire electoral campaign. The story unfolded with startling speed and just 30 minutes later when being interviewed on BBC Radio 2 Mr Brown was confronted with a recording of comments he thought were private. The look of shock and devastation on his face were plain for all to see and the next day his face in his hands was plastered all across the morning newspapers.
It says a lot about Britain’s rather colourful but hilariously diabolical and chaotic nature way its elections are organised. Politicians are urged and expected to flood into the “real world” to meet “real voters” and unlike America the armies of Secret Service agents and police marksmen aren’t availible. Usually all three party leaders get a Special Banch detail to look after them and maybe a couple of police outriders but thats about it.
Britain’s rail system, marginalised as it has been over the past 20 years, is still so comprehensive that it makes planes and even luxury campaign buses would seem overkill. Especially when you’re meant to do your green duty and travel by standard class on the train.
And then theres the people. When you’re surrounded by only a couple of Special Branch officers and some campaign aides, it is very easy for anybody to push through and speak to you one on one. In any case even if you do avoid direct contact with the public it seems that some spin doctor will grab someone for you to speak to anyway.
Since his gaffe, Brown then went on to perform fairly strongly in the last televised debate but it was too little too late and to be honest the man looks tired, nervous and resigned to his fate.
Also if the polls are anything to go by, while we are heading for a hung Parliament we are also going to see a very different political landscape without Gordon Brown. This is more or less in my view a repeat of former Canadian former Liberal Party leader Paul Martin’s tortured reign as Canada’s Prime Minister. Blessed initially with a healthy majority, he bungled a snap election meant to give him a legitimate mandate and from then on had to fight on either as a minority government or in an uneasy alliance with the smaller NDP. Eventually Martin’s political stock had plummetted by so much and his reputation torn to shred so much that by the time his government was forced to resign after a vote of no confidence there was no doubt that win or lose, Martin would have to go.
Brown faces the same political annihilation. There is talk of him being replaced by either the Foreign Secretary David Miliband or by Home Secretary Alan Johnston as the price of a coalition government deal with the Liberal Democrats. Lord Mandleson, a former spin doctor and European Commissioner on trade, is said to be very keen on such a deal if it means he gets the Foreign Office portfolio.
For the Conservatives and Lib Dems this is mana from heaven as it seems that both parties are benefiting from the gradual defection of Labour support towards their own parties. Neither seems likely to threaten the other in key marginal seats rather it seems that outside of its traditional lower class homeland in urban England, Scotland & Wales Labour will be swept away. Conservative leader David Cameron is said to be already in talks with the Lib Dems about a coalition government.
After the 6th of May what will happen next? Well first of all the Queen must at least ask someone to form a government. They can say no of course but in reality the horse trading could go on for weeks and maybe months. For all we mock Iraq for its post election paralysis we seem to be heading for the same political deadlock.
The safety valve (if you can call it that) is fresh elections which must be called if no clear government can be formed. Even if a minority government is formed it may fall anyway months afterwards and here we move onto the smaller parties.
The regional nationalists such as Plaid Cymru and the Scottish National Party (in NO way related to the BNP by the way) have set conditions on supporting any government coalition or minority and with a maximum of 30 votes on offer their bloc will be a very attractive source of support. However this will mean commitments to extra funding for Scotland and Wales. While this strategy is perfectly legitimate and actually pretty shrewd it does make a mockery of claims that both Scotland and Wales can not only survive but thrive when independent if they are increasingly dependent on extra subsidy from Westminister.
Northern Ireland is another variable. Sinn Fein will be out of the equation because they refuse to take the oath of allegiance to the Crown which means they cannot take their seats but can milk the British taxpayer of over £100,000 a year in expenses. The other Irish nationalist party, the SDLP however do take their seats and may put a price of more devolved powers to the Northern Irish Assembly for support.
The Unionists are slightly more complicated. There are two parties: the Ulster Unionists and the Democratic Unionist Party (or DUP). The Ulster Unionists are essentially the Ulster arm of the Conservative Party (whose full name is the Conservative and Unionist Party) and will probably back the Conservatives in any vote while the DUP have said that they will back any government on condition that they ensure that Ulster remains in British hands.
So an interesting situation for British politics. We’ll only see what will happen in the next five weeks or so.
