The King is dead! Long live the Queen!
Arguably not since the Great War Australia has been stumped by an almost eternal question: where next? As the country becomes gradually more assertive in its sphere of influence the question grows ever more pertinent. Does it align itself with a quasi-NATO Western alliance, does it lean closer towards the Far East or a mixture of the two.
Paul Keating was probably the architect of Australia’s overtures towards the Far East in the 1980s. While the initial result was frankly embarrassing for Australia as the various Tiger Economies sneered it was in the end the collapse of many of these economies in the mid 1990s coupled with Australia’s economic growth which put a fair few Asian strongmen in their place.
One problem dogged Keating throughout his time as Prime Minister and it is the same problem with dogs the advocates of an Asia first policy for Australia: Asia will never, ever accept Australia as one of their own. It will trade with Australia and even co-operate with Australia but it will always see the country as a white, Anglo-Saxon outpost in their back garden.
John Howard was arguably on the opposite end of the spectrum. Happy to sell raw materials to the Chinese but his tent was firmly pitched in Washington rather than Beijing or even Brussels.
His foreign policy also had a decidedly Anglo-friendly tint to it. While Canada’s Chretien & Martin looked on with total disinterest and Britain’s Blair wrung his hands, it was usually left to Howard to take the lead in the various Commonwealth crisies in Fiji, Pakistan and Zimbabwe much to the barely disguised fury of South Africa’s Thabo Mbeki who saw a South African led African renaissance taking an ever bigger role in Commonwealth affairs.
So by the time Kevin Rudd took office Australia had a taste of both sides of the diplomatic coin. Increased immigration had given Australia a much more cosmopolitan tint yet it retains a very British yet distinctly Australian flavour.
Rudd, in a nod to the Labor party’s instinct for veering towards Asia has engaged more in the region, especially with Indonesia which had an awkward relationship with Howard’s Australia. However at the same time has also struck it off well with the new Administration in America as well.
What Rudd recognised was that Australia has a unique position in international politics. It could be argued that Australia is the first truly 21st Century non aligned state happily trading with two superpowers while it runs its own affairs in its sphere of influence in the Far East. Like Britain and France in Europe, it is not immediately clear just how Australia would react if there were a Sino-American clash over Taiwan or North Korea but I would imagine it would attempt to stay neutral lest its position in the region is compromised. Backing NATO’s mission in Afghanistan is one thing but weighing in on the side of America over Taiwan might be a step too far.
It is probably time therefore to recognise the skilful handling of Australia through the decades by Prime Ministers from Labor and Liberal. The course plotted has put Australia in probably its strongest position in its short but successful history.
